Deconstructing Iran’s game of nuclear deception

Iran demands the world’s acceptance of its nuclear program and also that the international community be silent regarding human rights violations within its borders. This is what Hossein Mousavian calls for in a commentary in the Boston Globe as the Iranian leadership aims to leave the door open to the possibility of one day building the atomic bomb.

He’s an interesting figure. Between 1990 and 1993, when Lebanese Hezbollah captured two Germans, it was Mousavian who mediated and who facilitated their release. He was also involved in the release of hostages held by Hezbollah in 1989 and 1999. It should not be forgotten that at that time, as today, Iran was giving financial support to Hezbollah.

Concerning the upcoming nuclear talks with Iran, Mousavian argues optimistically and calls for a breakthrough from the global stalemate. In reality, he wants to secure the survival of the Islamic dictatorship. Mousavian believes the protagonists in the conflict will only find a way out of the impasse after the acceptance of the Western world of Islamic totalitarian rule in Iran.

But with seemingly rational arguments Mousavian repeats what we hear in the hate sermons of the Friday prayers in Teheran.

He is very strong in insisting that sanctions, covert action and military strikes will not halt Iran’s nuclear program and also claims that Iran reached „break-out capability“ 10 years ago, i.e. Iran had enough nuclear fuel in 2002 to build at least one nuclear bomb.

„Notwithstanding, the United States, the European Union, and even Israel agree on three things: Tehran does not have a bomb, has not decided to build one, and is years away from having a deliverable nuclear warhead. Iran’s current nuclear program is, therefore, not an imminent threat – leaving time for diplomacy to succeed.“

Mousavian „knows“ that the Western powers assume that Iran is not able to build a nuclear bomb and that Iran has not even decided to acquire the atomic bomb.

The Iranian negotiator makes one thing clear – Iran has had the potential to build a nuclear bomb for a long time. Mousavian’s arguments are not really different to statements made by Ahmadinejad and Khamenei that Iran does not want to build a nuclear bomb. At least not yet.

Mousavian says Iran is probably able to build a bomb. Ahmadinejad said recently in an interview with German state broadcaster, ZDF: „If Iran wants to build the bomb, no one will be asked“.

However, Mousavian points to the U.S. President, who is looking for diplomatic solutions. Mousavian also wants a diplomatic solution but he begins with an aggressive move. Firstly, he makes clear that the West is wrong. He demonstrates that the West has underestimated Iran’s acquired potential. Mousavian also demands the surrender of the West in that  „the U.S. government has to give up the plan for a regime change“.

He also speaks about the duties of the Iranian people and states that Iranians should subordinate themselves to the eternal power of the totalitarian dictatorship. Mousavian is not exactly modest – he demands the „recognition of Iran’s inalienable rights to enrichment.“ Sanctions should be stopped.

The world has to respect the nuclear program of a murderous regime, he says. In calling for such things, Mousavian speaks with Persian „Taarof„. This is known in Iran as a false politeness and exaggerated demeanor.

Yes, Mousavian guarantees that Iran will show transparency towards the IAEA, but Iran itself will define what transparency actually means. Ahmadinejad clarified this issue in his ZDF interview when the Iranian president asked the interviewer if any inspector would be allowed to inspect the offices of the German Chancellor.

The Iranian regime will never open up sites that are declared as military zones. Said with Persian „Taarof„, the Iranian regime will define for itself what transparency is supposed to mean, from its perspective. If this is accepted, Iran will pursue confidence building measures with the international community and not build a nuclear bomb, Mousavian says. 

The attitude of the Iranian regime can be explained with game theory. We do not know if Mousavian is playing poker and is bluffing, or if he has actually already won the game. This is precisely the confusion that Mousavian wants to convey. He is betting not just with money, but with life and death. If he loses, then the bomb, his whole casino and maybe more, could go up in smoke. 

Iran is playing for time, but the regime it is not only risking itself, but the lives of millions of its people. Mousavian gives a sweetener to his Western adversaries. He promises that in the face of Western acceptance of the totalitarian dictatorship that Iran will give up 20 percent of its enriched uranium. A good step, but not a long-term solution. At least in the known plants.

Neither the IAEA nor any other Western power is certain that Iran actually has no hidden uranium enrichment plants that are declared as closed military zones. Mousavian und Khamenei stoke this uncertainty because it buys them more time.

If the West accepts the rules laid down by Iran in relation to the military zones, the P5 +1 (the UN Security Council permanent five plus Germany) can more confidently deliver fuel rods to the research center in Tehran, he says.

But this is not the end of the haggling in Mousavian’s bazaar. The Western „enemies“ should get on their knees. Mousavian demands that the West remove the oil sanctions and the sanctions against the Iranian central bank. As Ahmadinejad has already said in his interview with ZDF, Iran will show transparency according to the „law“. The question is, to which law he is referring?

Mousavian goes one step further – „To secure sustainable transparency, Iran should ratify the ‘Additional Protocol‘ and ‘Subsidiary Arrangement Code 3.1′, maximize cooperation with the IAEA, and halt building further enrichment sites until IAEA ambiguities are removed. In return, the P5+1 should lift all UN and unilateral sanctions.“

Life is already dangerous enough, let alone when dealing with an actor who is potentially suicidal and who in his „ultimate irrationality“ fears nothing.

Mousavian wants to guarantee the IAEA „complete“ control and to even allow it to limit uranium enrichment in the „existing facilities“. As a confidence-building measure, Mousavian suggests that Iran should even abandon its domestic consumption of radioactive fuel.

In return, the West should then refrain from unilateral sanctions, revoke bans and „cooperate“ with Iran’s peaceful nuclear program.

The poker player Mousavian is in fact also a good chess player. Like a good chess player he tries to hide what he plans for his next five moves. The opponents can manage a good counter-move or two. However, the opponent who gets spooked may not only lose his queen, but much more. There are too many grey areas surrounding the issue of uncontrolled military zones and they remain a nuclear mystery.

That is exactly what benefits Mousavian. The fulfillment of any agreement is still invalid if a partner defines whether there are still uncontrolled military grey areas or not, and this is precisely the case. The totalitarian dictatorship tries to determine the rules of the game.

Mousavian’s cynicism knows no bounds as he describes his game and the legitimate uncertainty of his opponent as a serious dialogue.

Above all, it often seems, the goal of democratic states is to boost economic growth and sustain living standards. Mousavian knows this and he is appealing to this dominant instinct of capitalist states, which, he believes, will seek profits at any cost and ultimately fail to reckon with the real dangers of a nuclear totalitarian dictatorship.

Wahied Wahdat-Hagh is a Senior Fellow at the European Foundation for Democracy (EFD) in Brussels