The Problematic Scenarios in Syria: The Choices Facing Israel | INSS

The Problematic Scenarios in Syria: The Choices Facing Israel | INSS

Despite the difficulty in envisioning the final outcome of the campaign in Syria, and under the assumption that Syria will not return to the situation that existed there prior to the outbreak of the civil war, Israel must prepare for the future. It must update the strategic considerations that until now have driven the current policy of non-intervention. This demands proposing a competing approach to the existing conception, which claims that Iran is the main threat, and identifies the Islamic State as a threat that is more severe than the Iranian challenge. A scenario in which the Islamic State extends its control over southern Syria and the Golan Heights will bring Israel face to face with an element that does not operate in accordance with the international standard, i.e., without any rules of the game between states. If the Golan Heights and additional territories held by Assad and his allies fall to the Islamic State, the different types of weapons located in these areas will presumably be seized by the Islamic State. Strategic weapons possessed by the Islamic State will be more dangerous than the same weapons in the possession of Iran and Hizbollah, which are influenced by restraining considerations…